Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season should be a fun one. Four straight days of football sounds pretty good to me. This season has been a little unpredictable, but for the most part, the teams that were thought to be good teams have been solid. Typically, towards the end of the regular season, it is hard to gauge the games where both teams are out of playoff contention.
However, these are the games where Vegas pays less attention to the lines and gives us the best opportunity to make money. While it is still early in the week and these picks are subject to change, I have four picks this week and a prop bet that I really like.
Week 16: Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Over 51
Starting off with the first game of the long slate this weekend. I think the over in this game is a bit of a steal. In recent years when these two teams have played, the games usually start off slow as they feel each other out. Last week the Vikings let up 10 points in the first quarter to the Chicago Bears and ended up giving up 33. The Saints have also allowed more first-half points than they have in recent years. Both these trends make me believe that both offenses should get off to a faster start than they have in recent years and that combined with playing in a dome makes me really like this over.
Saints 31 Vikings 24
Week 16: Arizona Cardinals (-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
I’d say that this is my favorite play of the week, however, we have several factors going against the Cardinals. The most prevalent being that they just came off an emotional win against the Eagles. This may be a letdown game for the Cardinals after such a big win. The sharps in Vegas think that because the line has dropped from 6.5 to 5 already. I think they are wrong. I believe in the Cardinals team and think Kyler Murray will show up and have a great game. These two teams played in Week 1 of the season and the Cardinals won on the road by 4. Since then, the 49ers have been derailed by injuries to their 3 biggest stars. Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa, and George Kittle. I think the Cards will start fast and run away with this one.
Cardinals 27 49ers 13
Week 16: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Chicago Bears
It may be wishful thinking on my part, as a Jet fan needing the Jags to win to make up for our awful win last week however, I really like the Jags in this spot. Coach Doug Marrone and Quarterback Gardner Minshew do not care about Trevor Lawrence. They are coaching and playing for their futures in the NFL, combine that with the fact that the Bears are coming off an impressive win vs. their rival Vikings. Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has been on fire in recent weeks, but I think he is due for a poor game against a Jaguars team that has performed really well against NFC North teams. (They recently lost to the Vikings in overtime and played a competitive game against the Packers only a month ago.)
Bears 24 Jags 22
Week 16: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Denver Broncos
This is one of those games that Vegas is not paying as much attention to compared to some other ones. The advance line for this game was also -3 last week. The Chargers have shown something in the last two weeks that they have not been able to all season. The ability to close games. The team showed a lot of heart last week after blowing the lead to the Las Vegas Raiders and clawing their way downfield to score a game-winning touchdown in overtime. The Chargers’ biggest strength is their wide receivers and the Broncos’ biggest weakness is their secondary. I think the Chargers will put up a lot of points in this one and rout the Broncos. It is my favorite play of the week.
Chargers 31 Broncos 14
Jalen Guyton 50 receiving yards and a TD
If this prop is available to you guys. I would advise you to jump on it fast. This prop will probably payout from a range of 6/1 to 9/1 and I really like it. Keenan Allen has had a nagging leg injury and Guyton has established himself as Herbert’s security blanket. Watching the Chargers games it always seems that Herbert is looking his way. I think he breaks a slant this week and takes it 50 yards for a touchdown.