In every draft there are a few quarterbacks worth taking at the top of the first round. Usually two or three. This year, there could potentially be five taken in the first 10 picks. Despite the unlikelihood of that outcome, there are still five premium signal callers to talk about until April 29.
Today, I‘ll be looking at how each of the best quarterbacks measure up by 5 key traits: arm strength, deep accuracy, short-mid accuracy, decision making, and mobility.
Arm Strength:
Fields has been gifted by god with a thunderbolt attached to his right shoulder. While many may question how he’ll use it, the one thing that’s unquestionable is that his pure power is elite.
Wilson also has indisputably elite arm talent, and uses it with a schoolyard, scrambler play style that’s becoming more common in the NFL. His ability to make off platform throws is truly impressive, and will almost certainly translate well in the league.
People have been talking about the messiah of this draft class for years, and it’s easy to see why. His live arm may not quite match the total output of Fields, but he can sling it in his own right as well. Duvall should have a good time watching him hit D.J. Chark deep next year.
Some readers will have a problem with this ranking, as they’ve most likely heard that Trey Lance is the prototypical raw, talented prospect a la Josh Allen this year. Trey Lance definitely has strong upside and a well rounded skill set, but is not by any means an elite talent. He has a good arm paired with good mobility and accuracy.
It should be stated that the gap between Lance and Jones on this list is significant. Jones has a lot going for him as a prospect, but his arm strength is a big negative. He lacks the zip on some of his throws that is visible with other prospects. He also just doesn’t seem to top out at nearly the distance of some of the other prospects here.
Deep Accuracy:
- Justin Fields
This was close between Fields and Jones, but Justin just edges out Mac for another top spot on this list. Fields pairs his live arm with excellent deep accuracy to form a dangerous combination in the right system. Given the opportunity to develop and grow, these two traits are what make up most of his lofty upside.
- Mac Jones
While he may not have all world arm strength, Mac Jones can certainly hit his spot. When Jones releases the ball, it just seems to magically go where he wants it to. Combining his accuracy with excellent decision making creates an incredibly efficient play style that led a dominant Alabama offense. If given the opportunity in the league, he could easily steward a similar juggernaut.
- Trevor Lawrence
One of the things that makes Trevor Lawrence so appealing as a prospect is how well rounded he is. While Fields and Jones are exemplary in this category, Lawrence is strong here as well. He truly has few weaknesses as a player, and hitting his target deep isn’t one of them.
- Tie: Zach Wilson/Trey Lance
It should be said that neither of them necessarily have bad deep accuracy. It just happens to be a similar weakness in both of their games. Wilson and Lance have both tended to under throw deep routes at times, which is clearly not an issue with their arm strength. Placing the ball deep downfield is incredibly important, but with experience and coaching they should both be fine.
Short-Mid Accuracy:
- Mac Jones
As said earlier, Mac Jones truly knows how to place the ball, and his ability to fit in tight window throws is unmatched in this class.
- Trevor Lawrence
Yet another example of why Lawrence is so highly regarded, he’s pretty good at this too. Lawrence excels at diagnosing defenses quickly and finding the open man. While he isn’t perfect here, no prospect really is.
- Trey Lance
It’s possible that the misconception of Lance as a deep ball gunslinger comes from the zip he puts on his mid range throws. Lance can hit just about any target he sees, and will have no problems in any scheme that helps him in that regard.
- Tie: Zach Wilson/Justin Fields
This is the biggest weakness in both of their profiles as a passer. Specifically under pressure, they both have a tendency to let their mechanics break down, which leads to inaccurate throws. These two are actually the reason I decided to break up the deep and short accuracy categories, given the distinction in both of their games.
Decision-Making:
- Mac Jones
Mac Jones has mental polish that you rarely see from quarterbacks entering the draft. He knows how to read defenses, he progresses smoothly through his reads, and he consistently finds the open man. Jones is NFL ready in this category.
- Trevor Lawrence
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is yet another category where Lawrence turns in a strong performance. He has some issues with simulated pressure and creeper blitzes, but other than that his mental game is pro ready.
- Zach Wilson
While he has a small tendency to lock onto one receiver, his decision making skills are otherwise strong. He doesn’t throw into traffic too often and he gets the ball out quickly.
- Trey Lance
In the limited tape available of Lance after one season, his decision making was good, but nothing special. He made some mistakes, but none that stung him too badly. Overall, there’s some work to be done but no red flags.
- Justin Fields
This is the category that really makes me hesitate about Fields as a prospect. His big weakness here is not so much in making poor reads, but making late ones. He usually finds the right place to go with the football, but either gets there late or doesn’t pull the trigger fast enough. This leads to stupid interceptions and ugly plays, which tend to compound on each other leading to games like Northwestern or Indiana. The bright spot here is that these are all the same problems that led people to doubt Justin Herbert. If nothing else, that means Fields has healthy room to grow.
Mobility:
- Trevor Lawrence
This is what completes Lawrence as a prospect. Combining his natural ability as a pocket passer with his elite rushing ability and 6’6 220 pound frame makes for a scary talented player. Lawrence has frequently showcased an ability to outrun defensive backs and power through linebackers on the ground. He also shows an escapability that has become almost necessary in the league today.
- Tie: Justin Fields/Zach Wilson
While Wilson is the better scrambler, Fields is the better runner. You can make of that what you will. Either way, these two prospects both show the elite athletic profile that is so common among their generation of quarterbacks.
- Trey Lance
Lance may not have top end agility or speed, but he is certainly mobile. He knows how to leverage angles when running and he has plenty of athleticism in open space.
- Mac Jones
There is another significant gap here between Lance and Jones. Arguably Jones’s biggest weakness as a prospect is his complete lack of running ability. He seems downright un-athletic at times and fails to escape the pocket consistently. Without doubt he is the least athletic of these quarterbacks. What he does have is excellent ability inside the pocket to make up for this lack of improvisational talent.
Recap:
As easy as it is to play armchair general manager with these quarterbacks, it always behooves fans to remember that the people who get paid to make decisions about these players have access to a lot more information than they do. With that being said, each offensive system may value their mix of traits differently, so who goes where is almost entirely a crapshoot.
The QB2 argument will almost assuredly rage on until draft night, and where Trey Lance ends up will continue to be a mystery. What we do know is that this is a QB class loaded with talent. All of these quarterbacks will be going on day 1, the only question is when they get the phone call.